The B2B platform for full-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: Industry News

A new study from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) concludes that PHEV annual sales in the US could reach 4-5% by 2020 and around 20% in 30 years if subsidies of the U.S. government are in place.

The results of the study: “PHEV Marketplace Penetration: An Agent Based Simulation” conducted by the researchers of the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) show that by 2015, sales could achieve 2-3% with fleet penetration of around 1% and by 2020, sales are estimated at around 4-5% with fleet penetration of 2%. Different validation exercises in the simulation have proved that subsidies such as tax rebates, sales tax exemptions, and PHEV subsidies are critical and that an incentivised marketplace facilitates PHEV penetration levels. Without any additional subsidies the simulation results in a fleet penetration level of only 1% in ten years.

In 30 years the study forecasts sales for PHEVs of about 20% with a fleet penetration of around 16%. The UMTRI study shows as well that a fleet penetration of 18% would reduce the gasoline consumption by over 20% and decrease CO₂ emissions by about the same amount.

PHEVs crucial to reduce CO₂ emissions

Since energy security and climate change issues have become paramount, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the study to calculate the potential of PHEV in the U.S market. Recognising PHEVs as the new advanced technology essential to improve energy efficiency and to reduce the transportation sector’s carbon footprint is a major outcome of the UMTRI study.

The simulation was also developed to find out how new technologies in general migrate into their marketplaces and, in the next step how in particular the penetration of PHEVs into the U.S auto marketplace can be characterised. The report takes into account 4 classes of decision makers: consumers, government, fuel producers and vehicles producers/dealers. It points out that the limiting factor is the individual replacing rate posing a barrier to the introduction of new technologies. Since the turnover rate at which consumers replace their cars ranges between 3 to 10 years, the turnover of the fleet will take time even if the market has already accepted new vehicle technologies.