In its latest report, the UK Committee on Climate Change has characterised EVs as the most viable solution for deep emissions cuts in road transport in the 2020s. The Committee recommends the realisation of pilot projects targeting the deployment of around 240,000 cars by 2015. It further maintains that the level of total support required is likely to be considerably higher than what the UK Government has committed to.
The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) has published a report on climate change that includes new analysis of the technical and economic aspects of electric cars, and recommendations on arrangements to support roll-out of electric cars.
According to the report, there is a limit to how much carbon intensity of conventional cars can be improved and it is therefore very important to develop electric car options, which currently appear to be the most viable from alternatives for deep emissions cuts in road transport in the 2020s.
Conclusions and recommendations with regards to electric vehicles
With regards to electric vehicles, CCC observes and recommends the following:
- Market readiness: Electric cars are market ready, with some cars already on the road, and new models scheduled to come to market in the near future.
- Battery costs: Upfront costs of electric cars are relatively expensive compared to conventional alternatives, mainly due to battery costs. Analysis conducted by CCC suggests, however, that there is scope for a 70% battery cost reduction through learning effects as electric cars are deployed. With a 70% cost reduction, electric cars would be competitive with conventional cars once operating cost savings at current levels of fuel duty are taken into account.
- Price support: CCC analysis suggests that price support of up to £5,000 per car proposed by the UK Government is appropriate in conjunction with innovative business models for spreading upfront costs over time (e.g. battery leasing). Price support should no longer be required for some types of car from 2014, depending on the pace at which battery costs fall. Total support required to get to break even and to achieve a level of penetration to provide a critical mass for widespread roll-out in the 2020s is likely to be considerably higher than the Government’s £250 million commitment. Support levels closer to the level of £800 million are more realistic.
- Pilot projects: Electric car roll-out should be concentrated in certain areas to allow exploitation of economies of scale. Pilot projects should cover several cities and target deployment of around 240,000 cars by 2015 on the way to 1.7 million cars on the road in 2020. Funding required for charging infrastructure to support pilot projects should be no more than £230 million, and could be considerably less.
- Charging infrastructure: A charging infrastructure to support roll-out to 2020 could be achieved at a cost in the low hundreds of millions rising to around £1.5 billion depending on the level of sophistication of charging meters. Charging infrastructure would have to be funded at least in part by government.
- Implications for the power system: Roll-out of electric cars to 2020 based on overnight charging should have very limited implications for the power system. Full roll-out in the 2020s could have implications, with for example the need to upgrade distribution substations if there is widespread daytime fast charging. Such upgrades would not be prohibitively costly, and would be accommodated within the normal investment programmes of energy companies.
About the Committee on Climate Change
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) is an independent body established under the Climate Change Act to advise the UK Government on emissions targets, and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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