Gas-electric hybrids and plug-in electric vehicles may account for 8% of new vehicles sales in the U.S. in 2013, a new market outlook predicts. The study also paints a rosy picture for vehicle battery modules and other components to spur electric mobility.

The report published this month by NextGen Research forecasts an eight percent increase in hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles within the next four years. In 2013, hybrid-vehicle sales would surge to about 2 million units worldwide, up from 550,000 models last year. Plug-in hybrids would by then account for 350,00 models, up from around 10,000 plug-in hybrids in 2008. With domestic new vehicle sales slumping to about 13 million units last year and the U.S. accounting for about half of the hybrid vehicles sold worldwide, less than one in 40 new cars in the United States were hybrids or plug-in hybrids in 2008.

NextGen’s analysis “Electric and Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Components: The Global Market for Batteries, Ultracapacitors, Electric Motors, and the Electronics that improve Vehicle Efficiency” builds on recent research on electric vehicles and both consumer and commercial hybrids. Presenting an overall vehicle sales forecast for the period 2008-2014, the company expects to see significant growth in the market for vehicle battery modules from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $3,7 billion by 2014.

Li-ion: from 5+ vision to short-term solution

A major driver for a rapid increase in the use of lithium-ion batteries has been “the lack of any other remotely acceptable alternative, amid growing pressure to produce a new generation of hybrid vehicles”, Dave Alexander from NextGen states. Over the last year the most significant change has hence been the shift in attitude towards Li-ion battery modules for vehicle energy storage. From being a vision 5 or more years away, Li-ion has now moved to the centre of interest, with first production roll-outs announced within the next 12 months. OEMs would therefore now heavily competing to be the first to market with a Li-ion energy storage system, Alexander confirms.